I know 99% of the diaries are Katrina-related at the moment, but I thought I'd break in with some musings about the thing Howard Dean has been bitching about for the several years now.
(This started as a comment on another diary but I thought it merited it's own diary since it was pretty off-topic from that one).
Dear DLC Types:
It is true that "moving to the center" was part of Bill Clinton's success story for 8 years, and the bulk of the DC Dems "got" this part of it.
However, this was not the ONLY part of his success story, and there are several important factors which you seem to keep forgetting:
- Bill Clinton also succeeded because he was BILL CLINTON. To paraphrase Barton Fink, only Bill Clinton had "that Bill Clinton feeling". A hundred wannabes keep trying to "move to the center" the way he did, and fail, because they don't have his sheer force of charisma.
- Even with his "move to the center" strategy and unique Bill Clinton charisma, he still only received 43% of the vote in 1992. The third major factor was H. Ross Perot's unusually high 19% 3rd-party showing. A hundred Clinton wannabes keep forgetting that without a strong 3rd-party candidate to rock the boat, 43% still won't cut it.
- Even as a popular incumbent, Clinton just barely managed to squeak by the 50% mark in 1996, and that was with Perot's (less significant this time) 8%, a strong economy and a weak opponent. A hundred Clinton wannabes can't count on these factors.
- Clinton's strategy was unique and clever enough to caught the GOP by surprise once--and was, again, assisted by the unique presence of Perot. A hundred Clinton wannabes can't catch the GOP offguard like that again.
- And finally, "moving to the center" is meaningless today since the "center" has moved so far to the right, and keeps moving; plus, different times call for different measures. The world of 2005 is not the same--for good or for bad--as the world of 1992. If Bill Clinton was running for the first time today, under current economic, social, media and political conditions, there's no certainty that using the same strategy he used in 1992 would work today.
Please recognize at least a few of these simple realities and quit trying to ape Clinton. Guys, get it straight: You are not Bill Clinton circa 1992, so don't expect to win the way he did.
A completely different strategy is called for.
Howard Dean's "50 State/Stand Up for What You Believe" strategy MAY work or it MAY not, but it sure as hell can't be any worse than the one you've tried for the past 10 years--and at least you'll be able to look at yourself in the mirror every morning.